A death experience is needed in Estonian football?

Death is an inevitable part of our lives, whether we want it or not. While it is undeniably sad, it also holds the potential for something better. The experience of mortality can open our eyes to the world and help us to question it from a different perspective. This text explores the significance of embracing a ‘death experience’ metaphorically in Estonian football to stimulate fresh inquiries concerning talent and talent identification (talent ID).

One fine evening at the stage, after just quitting her starting monologue, Finnish actress Eeva Soivio fell on the floor and died. Her heart had stopped beating, and she was technically dead. No cognition, no light. Only the rapid help of the people surrounding her, and a hit of a defibrillator, brought her back to life. Back to consciousness, back to light. But, not back to the same as before. After that experience, her life was different – she started viewing the world differently, to understand that tomorrow might never come, and that death is not something to be afraid of.

Perhaps she also started to ask different questions. Because normally, when our life changes, our questions do too. And vice versa. So, they’re important. The questions. Especially good ones, that help in the pursuit of wisdom. Asking insightful questions is essential for formulating clear problem statements, especially when facing complex issues.

On the other hand, bad questions can prevent our growth towards wisdom. They can keep us at simple arguments and thinking, where real progress doesn’t happen. Indeed, if individuals and societies stay at the bad, ‘lower level’ questions, they’ll circle around the same thoughts for ever, staying at the same place, without movement. Poor questions, poor people. Intellectually.

Like Francis Bacon said, “a prudent question is one-half of wisdom.” This’s where the role of a FA comes into play. And first question: What’s the role of a FA in a society? For me it is to help the surrounding society generally and football specifically to grow towards wisdom. Towards wisdom, which is much more than data, information, and data-driven decision-making (one of the current trends). In this text, I associate wisdom with high-level thinking and action that helps communities thrive and function well and rightly. Wisdom includes knowledge and technological competence, and much more. Wisdom involves the ability to discover what is valuable, the ability to find meaningful questions, and the ability to solve those questions that need solving.

Talent development

Questions lead us to the realm of talent development in football, a hot topic in present day football, and to the inquiries related to that topic. Currently, the primary questions go like this: “how can we find talent?” and “how can we develop talent?”

Indeed, talent is an often-used concept in football. Talents are like diamonds. They shine clearly, they look good, and they’ll bring prosperity to the community. They’re better than others, already young, and their ‘betterness’ is innate – they were born that way. Additionally, we often think that early indicators are reliable signs of talent and that we can identify it early.

But, is above mentioned ‘talentness’ real? Is talent really an inherent and unchanging characteristic of a football player? Related to this, several researchers have proposed that factors distinguishing elite athletes from novices become apparent only during late adolescence. Before adolescence and sometimes even after it, it’s very challenging to predict who will become an elite athlete. [1–3]

Predicting or finding talent is very difficult or even impossible because there’s a complex interaction between technical, tactical, psychological, and physical characteristics. [4] Additionally, players don't develop in isolation, and the environment influences their development and the manifestation of their attributes. [5] Considering players’ attributes as internal, separate, stable, and independent phenomena is not reasonable because they are related to the social environment and manifest through correspondence with the environment. [6]

Research on various attributes and attempts to predict high performance (talent) in the future have generally yielded small effect sizes. The sensitivity and predictive value of psychological, physical, and other tests are weak, and they cannot reliably identify talent. [1–3,7]

The starting point of Garrincha's journey was difficult. When he was born, his spine was deformed and his left leg was bent outwards, while his right leg was six centimeters shorter than the other and curved inwards. Doctors initially thought he would never walk properly, let alone play football.

Part of the issues stems from the lack of understanding related to skill in football and the tests used to measure it. The tests used don’t capture what skill or good play means in football. Technical tests are isolated performances that poorly correspond to the complex and dynamic nature of football matches. This is different from skilled football performance. For example, technical tests rarely examine skill without the ball.

Other issues with talent identification studies include relative age effect (RAE), and biological age. [8] The former refers to a higher proportion of early-born children in junior teams, while the latter relates to different biological development trajectories in individuals. For example, two players of the same age may be at very different stages of biological development. These factors are normally somewhat considered in talent identification schemes, but not nearly enough. Because of their young biological age, numerous players may remain in the shadows for years.

Talent ID – or fake ID?

Focus on player development and talent identification programs is often too much on those who are identified as talented, rather than the broader number of participants in the sport who could have potential to meet the standards later on. We see players who succeed in the system, which may deceive us into thinking the system is effective.

Player development is often presented in a pyramid model (Figure 2). Progression from one level to another involves a significant drop-out rate from the system and potentially from the sport altogether. Federations, academies, and others establish tests and benchmarks that guide talent identification and access to the next levels. If a player falls off the ‘track’, it becomes challenging for her to return, and she may no longer be considered talented. This is often associated with the idea of ‘early specialization’, where talents demonstrate their abilities at a young age. [3,7]

Figure 1. Player development pyramid and related issues (adapted from van der Breggen & Verbeek, 2020).

The effectiveness of talent development and identification systems is an optical illusion because we cannot know if those who reached the top would have succeeded in different systems or what would have happened to the many excluded from the system under different circumstances. There is not much research on those excluded. Despite the vague predictive validity of talent development and identification models, their potentially demotivating effect should also be considered. Is this one of the reasons why many drop out?

More research and good questions are needed regarding talent development schemes. However, this we know already: those who enter academies earlier also leave earlier than those who enter later. [9] Additionally, those who enter later are overrepresented in adults.

Risk in talent ID

Why is talent ID a difficult concept? Player development and growth are highly nonlinear. Players of the same chronological age can differ by several years in biological age. Moreover, different physical and psychological abilities develop at very different rates. [2,3]

Due to the ambiguous nature of talent and talent ID concepts, our talent development and identification programs entail significant risks (Figure 3). [1] Relying solely on absurdly low-quality analysis to identify players, should not be enough for talent identification. The same applies to claims that certain tests can predict a player's likelihood of becoming something specific. We take risks in talent identification that require careful consideration.

Talent identification risk matrix (adapted from Baker et al., 2018).

Athletes in the white boxes in the figure are usually not a problem; they are easily identifiable (though there are still risks: for example, Garrincha was weak and had club feet as a child). Those in the light gray boxes represent a moderate risk, as they represent average performance (they won't become experts, but they may take spots from others / they’re potential talents, but their current level is not high). The highest risk is represented in the dark gray boxes, where athletes may have significant potential but are not included because they are not exceptional at that moment. Or they may appear exceptional now, but their long-term potential is not significant. This group also takes the spots of potential talents in selections.

Ethicality of talent concept

At this point, it becomes evident that talent and talent ID face significant conceptual and practical problems. Yet, why do we persist in following the same practices as several other FA’s? Why do we keep revisiting the same questions repeatedly?

A practical example related to talent ID from my coaching years in Finnish 1st league, Veikkausliiga. I’ve experienced a situation where a talent coach was hired to the club, and who, along with other coaches, had to decide which ~10 players would be selected for the special talent development group. One player in the group was almost cut, despite being considered one of the most promising players by several coaches in the club. The issue was that he had just experienced a growth spurt and moved clumsily, resembling a Bambi. He didn't appear like a talent. Eventually, the player was chosen for the talent development group, and later became the only player from that group to play in Veikkausliiga.

Players who have just gone through a growth spurt may move very awkwardly at first.

This’s very normal in talent ID. Still, we’re doing talent ID and ‘diamond mining’, even though the social inequality among children and youth continues to be a problem in football. For example, consider activity fees, parents' ability to pay these fees, and the quality of coaching that children receive. Not all children and youth have equal opportunities to participate in high-quality activities and receive a solid foundation for their development. So, a question: How ethical it is that we start to identificate talents very early, when we at the same time know, that talent identification doesn’t work and leads football towards inequality?

From talent to potential – from trees to forest

We are bad at differentiating a player's current level and their potential. Let's take an example of two girls: the first comes from a family that positively encourages sports. She gets to experience various sports, becomes interested in football, and joins a club to pursue it. In this club, she has an inspiring coach, and her skills improve rapidly. In the second family, a single mother struggles with everyday life and cannot provide opportunities for her daughter to engage in sports. Sport is not seen as a positive thing in her family, and the girl, despite her interest in football, has to struggle amidst all these challenges. Eventually, she manages to join the same club as the first girl but starts in the second team. Now, the girls are being compared to each other. Which one has a higher current level, and which one has greater potential? How can we accurately assess this?

Here, anthropologist Tim Ingold's ideas related to human learning and growth become useful. In his book ‘The Perception of the Environment: Essays on Livelihood, Dwelling, and Skill’, he introduces the concepts of ‘enskilment’ and ‘wayfinding’.

According to Ingold, enskilment refers to learning similar to that of hunter-gatherers, where learning is inseparable from one's actions and surroundings. The knowledge acquired is not explicit information stored in memory, conveyed by a teacher, but rather a gradually deepening bodily and closely tied attention to the environment. Individuals learn to attune themselves to the world, such as football, and become more receptive to its elements. Fellow companions, like teammates, parents, or coaches, can assist in this attunement.

On the other hand, wayfinding can be likened to navigating through a forest, where one is heading somewhere without precise coordinates. While on the path, the direction is constantly updated based on the appearance of the terrain. The path is not predetermined; rather, it is sensed and explored during the journey. Again, fellow travellers can aid in sensing the surroundings and finding direction.

What do these concepts have to do with talent development? Jorg van der Breggen and Jan Verbeek from the Dutch Football Association, among others, have suggested that instead of focusing on talent, we should consider potential. Talent is something we believe we can spot early on and doesn't change much as the child grows. It is a relatively stable attribute; a player either is or isn't a talent.

Potential, on the other hand, can be found in a much larger pool of children. It may be hidden and only flourish later in adolescence or even adulthood. The focus in potential thinking is more on the environment's nature rather than the individual. It's like preparing the foundation of a forest so that young saplings can grow into healthy trees. It's not just about concentrating on the best saplings and providing them with the most care. This approach is a holistic and ecological perspective on player development. It emphasizes the quality of coaching, assisting mentors to be alongside children and youth, and their coaches.

Potentsiaalile mõtlemine seab suurema rõhu pigem keskkonna olemusele kui et ainult indiviidile. Pilt: Valgesoo maastikukaitseala)

Here, I want to emphasize that embracing a holistic and ecological football culture, which focuses on the environment’s nature and the players’ potential, does not entail excluding competitiveness and the pursuit of excellence. On the contrary, the drive towards the top and the advancement of Estonian football align seamlessly with the principles outlined in this section.

Conclusion

For Eeva Soivio, death is no longer a frightening phenomenon. Perhaps football leaders shouldn't be afraid either? It's time for the demise of old ideas, such as talent and talent ID. As the summer vacations end and new strategies are being planned, Estonian FA leaders should embark on a journey to challenge their own thoughts profoundly and then breathe new life into their approach with more insightful questions.

Maybe with questions like:

• What role does Estonian FA play in society?

• How can we reshape our perspective on talent and talent ID?

• What are the factors that contribute to players becoming skilful?

• How can we foster environments that support the growth of skilful players?

From Northern Finnish forests, with a warm heart, hoping for wisdom and prudent questions.

Conceptualisation and text*: Jani Sarajärvi**

Conceptualisation and images: Mario Hansi

*Some reformulated parts of the text are from Sarajärvi’s blog post “The denial of potential and other ways to destroy talent - a place for reassessing player development and identification”, written for Suunnanmuutos football blog year 2021.

** Jani Sarajärvi is a coach-analyst of the Gambian national team and a PhD candidate in football coaching at the University of Lisbon.

References:

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[2] Bergkamp TLG, Niessen ASM, den Hartigh RJR, Frencken WGP, Meijer RR. Methodological Issues in Soccer Talent Identification Research. Sports Med. 2019;49(9):1317-1335.

[3] Johnston K, Baker J. Waste Reduction Strategies: Factors Affecting Talent Wastage and the Efficacy of Talent Selection in Sport. Front Psychol. 2020;10(2925).

[4] Pinder RA, Renshaw I, Davids K. The role of representative design in talent development: a comment on “Talent identification and promotion programmes of Olympic athletes.” J Sports Sci. 2013;31(8):803-806.

[5] Uehara L, Button C, Saunders J, Araújo D, Falcous M, Davids K. Malandragem and Ginga: Socio-cultural constraints on the development of expertise and skills in Brazilian football. Int J Sports Sci Coach. 2020;0(0):1-14.

[6] Sarmento H, Anguera MT, Pereira A, Araújo D. Talent Identification and Development in Male Football: A Systematic Review. Sports Med. 2018;48(4):907-931.

[7] Bailey R, Collins D. The Standard Model of Talent Development and Its Discontents. Kinesiol Rev. 2013;2(4):248-259.

[8] Webdale K, Baker J, Schorer J, Wattie N. Solving sport’s ‘relative age’ problem: a systematic review of proposed solutions. Int Rev Sport Exerc Psychol. 2020;13(1):187-204.

[9] van der Breggen J, Verbeek J. Building an Evidence Based Youth Football Development Programme. Vol 7.; 2020. Accessed April 20, 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVTXzN0fE0k

[10] Güllich A. Selection, de-selection and progression in German football talent promotion. Eur J Sport Sci. 2014;14(6):530-537.